Time Is Running out for Indonesia to Turn the Tide on Myanmar
If Indonesia ends up the steward of ASEAN’s failure over Myanmar, Laos – the next chair – will be the gravedigger.
There are two ways of looking at Indonesia’s handling of the Myanmar crisis during its once-a-decade stint as ASEAN chair. Either Indonesia has been ASEAN chairman for only a few months so shouldn’t be blamed for having, so far, not come up with a meaningful policy on the Myanmar crisis. Or it only has eight months left as the chair and if it fails to devise a policy, the entire ASEAN-led response could crumble when it hands over the chairmanship next year to Laos, which is sure to steer the regional bloc down the path of greater acceptance of Myanmar’s military junta.
Upon the handover, Jakarta needs to have in place more than something resembling a coherent policy toward Myanmar. There needs to be a gift-wrapped policy on which there’s so much accord among member states that Laos cannot walk it back. ASEAN’s policy must be able to sustain itself even when in the hands of the disinterested.
Jakarta’s burden is considerable. Create a policy too tough on the junta and some other ASEAN states, who want the bloc to have nothing to do with the Myanmar crisis, won’t be on board. A policy that is too forceful also risks being jettisoned once Indonesian diplomats are no longer in charge. One too weak, though, would be meaningless. Read More…