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Tight Mayoral Race Expected in Gyumri

A highly competitive mayoral race is shaping up in Gyumri, Armenia's second-largest city, as six political parties and three alliances prepare for local elections scheduled for March 30. Voters will elect a new municipal council, which will subsequently appoint the city's mayor.

The ruling Civil Contract party, led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian, faces a challenging battle to maintain control of the municipal administration, which it gained just three months ago amid allegations of an illegitimate power grab. The upcoming election follows the mysterious resignations of Gyumri Mayor Vardges Samsonian, his deputies, and city council members from a local political bloc that opposed Pashinian's government. These resignations came after criminal charges were brought against the bloc's unofficial leader, businessman Samvel Balasanian, who is currently residing in the United States and has not publicly commented on the accusations.

Opposition leaders allege that Pashinian orchestrated the criminal proceedings against Balasanian to facilitate the installation of a more compliant mayor. However, Pashinian and his supporters have denied these claims. In December, the government appointed Sarik Minasian, the ruling party's mayoral candidate, as interim mayor. Since then, opposition groups and some media outlets have accused Minasian of misusing government resources to enhance his electoral prospects, a claim that Pashinian's political team also refutes.

The Civil Contract party is challenged by a diverse array of opposition figures, including former Mayor Vartan Ghukasian, Gyumri-based parliamentarian Martun Grigorian, prominent television producer Ruben Mkhitarian, and businessman Karen Simonian. All four candidates have firmly rejected the idea of forming post-election power-sharing agreements with Pashinian's party. Mkhitarian, who boasts a significant following on social media, expressed confidence that the next mayor of Gyumri will be an opponent of the central government.

“How can an Armenian guy form a coalition with them [Civil Contract] for the sake of positions or money?” Ghukasian remarked, emphasizing the deep-seated opposition to the ruling party.

The former mayor, who held office from 1999 to 2012, has intensified his anti-government rhetoric following his detention by police without charge for several hours on February 20. In contrast, Minasian has asserted that Gyumri voters will not support his main challengers due to their connections to former Presidents Serzh Sarkisian and Robert Kocharian. “The memories of our citizens are fresh, and they will give a correct assessment,” he told journalists.

Political observers suggest that the ruling party is unlikely to secure an absolute majority in the new city council, which would necessitate a power-sharing arrangement with one or two other contenders for Minasian to retain his position. The Euro Alliance, a coalition of pro-Western groups, is seen as the most likely potential ally. Leaders of the alliance have indicated their openness to such a coalition, with Aram Sarkisian, who heads a party that previously assisted Civil Contract in installing Yerevan's current mayor, Tigran Avinian, after the September 2023 municipal election.

Suren Sureniants, the Yerevan-based leader of the opposition Democratic Alternative party, has criticized the Euro Alliance, claiming it will campaign on an opposition platform to mislead disgruntled local residents and ultimately transfer their votes to Pashinian's candidate. “Through this alliance, the authorities are trying to introduce in Gyumri the same vicious model that helped the Civil Contract party cling to power in Yerevan,” Sureniants asserted.

As the election date approaches, the political landscape in Gyumri remains dynamic and unpredictable, with the potential for significant shifts in power and influence within the city’s governance.

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