GDP to sink in Ghana, South Africa and Nigeria without climate action, says report
-
Loading... - Sandra Afful
- 14 Sep 2022
- 82 Views
- 0 Like
- 0 Comment
If global temperatures continue to rise, and governments fail to meet their policy pledges, natural disasters will accelerate in Africa, hampering most countries’ economic growth, says Understanding Africa’s Climate Risks, a recent study by Oxford Economics Africa.
Under the report’s “No Further Action” scenario – in which no climate adaptation or mitigation policies are implemented – countries with annual temperatures above 15°C will experience an exponential deterioration in productivity growth.
Ghana, for instance, has a projected average temperature of 28°C in 2050 and will suffer one of the biggest hits to economic growth, with GDP levels at least 24.3% lower than baseline levels by 2050.
Other “warm countries” in danger of economic contractions include (from most to least affected): Botswana, Mozambique, Tanzania, Nigeria, Zambia, Uganda, Mauritius, South Africa, and Kenya.
“As the academic research on climate change is constantly evolving, our estimates may be underestimating the real economic impact of rising temperatures on those countries’ economies,” says Felicity Hannon, associate director at Oxford Economics Africa.
“African countries’ average temperatures are well above 15°C – in a range from 25°C to 30°C – which means that any further rise in temperature from where we are today will harm their GDPs.”
What chances for a net zero scenario?
Fuel exporting countries are projected to be better off than others in a No Further Action scenario in which they benefit from the continued demand for fossil fuels, while they would be worse off in the “Net Zero” scenario as the demand for the commodities collapses.
Under a Net Zero scenario, the world’s CO2 emissions will sharply decline from the second half of the century, with Sub-Saharan Africa accounting for only 5.8 % despite representing 18% of the world’s population. Read More...
